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The manual observations at ~ 10-min intervals at Bombay indicated a storm three times as intense as any that has been observed since. ( 2003) who analyzed long-buried geomagnetic observations of the event from Colaba Observatory where the automatic recording that led to off-scale readings at Greenwich and Kew had not yet been instituted. The establishment of the extreme strength of the Carrington storm awaited the study by Tsurutani et al. It was accompanied by a widespread aurora (Loomis 1859, 1860, 1861) and the magnetometers at Greenwich (east of London) and Kew (west), both near to Carrington’s observatory in Reigate (south of London) and Hodgson’s in Highgate (north), were driven off-scale, but systematic magnetic records only dated from the 1830s (Chapman and Bartels 1940) and there was little basis for comparison.įull size image 1.2 2003–2004: surge in interest in extreme events It was recognized at the time that the 1859 magnetic storm was strong, but just how strong was hard to say.
What he could not know was that the “sudden conflagration” he observed on the Sun and the ensuing geomagnetic storm were historically large-possibly the largest that have been directly observed (Cliver and Dietrich 2013).
1) represented a new and important solar phenomenon. From his detailed account of the "singular appearance seen in the Sun", it seems clear that Carrington knew that the transient bright emission patches he observed in the large spot group near central meridian (Fig. Richard Carrington, the accomplished nineteenth century English astronomer (Cliver and Keer 2012), described his discovery of the first solar flare-on 1 September 1859-in a brief Monthly Notices paper that is a mixture of scientific rigor (e.g., avoiding any correspondence with Hodgson, who also observed the flare, to maintain the independence of their accounts), excitement (“being somewhat flurried by the surprise, I hastily ran to call someone to witness the exhibition with me, and on returning within 60 s, was mortified to find that it was already much changed and enfeebled”), and caution (“While the contemporary occurrence may deserve noting, he would not have it supposed that he even leans toward hastily connecting them. In this review, we trace the evolution of research on extreme solar activity and review work on the limits of the various types of extreme space weather and their occurrence probabilities.
2012) and Kepler observations of flares on Sun-like stars (Maehara et al. The investigation of extreme space weather has broadened as new windows-historical cosmogenic nuclide events (Miyake et al. Severe space weather events that could cause such a major impact may be rare, but they are nonetheless a risk and cannot be completely discounted.” From the Lloyds’ report: “Sustained loss of power could mean that society reverts to nineteenth century practices. Footnote 1 The NRC report contains an estimate for the economic costs of such a storm of “$1 trillion to $2 trillion during the first year alone … with recovery times of 4–10 years”. Detailed studies of the impact of a severe space weather event on modern society have been conducted by the US National Research Council (NRC 2008), Lloyds of London (2010), JASON (2011), and the UK Royal Academy of Engineering (2013), among others. The threat posed by extreme space weather events to Earth’s technological infrastructure provided much of the impetus for this development.
Research on extreme solar and solar-terrestrial activity dates to the notable event of 1859 (Carrington 1859 Hodgson 1859 Stewart 1861), but it is only within the last twenty years that extreme events, as a separate class, have been examined in detail.
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